作者： 本報訊 | 台灣立報 – 2012年5月23日 下午10:30
2年前，聯合國糧食農業組織發起對抗饑餓的請願活動，活動口號是：「10億人口處於長期饑餓，我相當憤怒。」
Two years ago, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) launched a petition to fight hunger with the slogan: “1,000,000,000 people live in chronic hunger and I’m mad as hell.”
從那時起，超過340萬人為這項線上倡議活動發聲，參加的有演員、流行樂手和足球員，他們要求各國政府將消滅飢餓列為施政第一要務。
Since then, more than 3.4 million people, including actors, pop stars and footballers, have added their voices to the online campaign calling on governments to make the elimination of hunger their top priority.
然而，當前聯合國糧農組織秘書長迪奧夫描述，全球有10億人口長期饑餓時，世人對這個「可怕數據」的態度，開始由憤怒逐漸轉為羞愧，因為有部分聲音開始質疑這個數字的準確性。
But outrage over the “horrifying figure” of 1 billion hungry people around the world, as it was described by former FAO head Jacques Diouf, has turned to embarrassment in some quarters in light of growing doubts about the accuracy of the number.
許多研究者表示，這個預估數字太高了。「事實上10億人這個數字比較戲劇性，這也是為什麼這個數字讓人印象深刻。」樂施會糧食政策專家金恩表示：「這個一個巨大的數字。」
Many researchers say the estimate was simply too high. “The fact that it’s 1 billion is a much better story, and that’s why it stays in people’s minds,” said Richard King, a food policy expert with Oxfam. “It’s a great number.”
▲聯合國糧農組織舉辦24小時禁食活動，前任秘書長狄伍夫（Jacques Diouf）在羅馬的總部辦公室裡接聽電話，圖攝於2009年11月13日。（圖文／路透）
這場爭議讓聯合國頂層論壇世界糧食安全委員會敦促FAO徹底檢視其計算方式，使用更準確的數據和研究方式，並需要建立一套全球都同意的糧食安全指標。
The controversy led the Committee on World Food Security, a top-level U.N. forum, to urge the FAO to overhaul its calculations using better data and methodology and to call for a set of internationally agreed food-security indicators（1）.
今年10月將會看見首波成果，在FAO的年度糧食不足問題報告中，將會公布全球營養不良人口的最新預估人數，以及前幾年數據的修正版本。
The first fruits are due in October when a new estimate of the number of undernourished people will be published along with revisions for previous years as part of the FAO’s annual report on food insecurity.
FAO資深統計專家卡菲耶洛表示，新數據將會包括全球糧食供應的新資料，以及不同國家更即時、廣泛的家戶糧食消耗調查。該報告也將涵蓋饑餓程度的輔助性指標，如家戶糧食預算比例等。
The figures will incorporate fresher data on world food supplies and more timely and comprehensive household consumption surveys from different countries, said Carlo Cafiero, a senior FAO statistician. The report will also include supplemental indicators of hunger, such as the share of household budgets spent on food.
「如果你只拿出一個數字，很可能會過度詮釋這個數字，或是把這個數字當成一切的代表；但我們想要嘗試的是，更明確指出糧食不足的各種面向。」卡菲耶洛表示。
“If you only present one number, there is a tendency to over-interpret it and take it as if it were capturing everything, but we want to try and be more explicit in recognising the various dimensions of food insecurity,” Cafiero said.
在第一線工作的營養學家，長期以來抱怨FAO的饑餓預估過度狹隘地專注於每人所攝取的卡路里，卻忽略大局：也就是日常飲食中的蛋白質、維他命和礦物質等營養素的缺乏，以及缺乏這些營養素所造成的嚴重健康問題。
Nutritionists working in the field have long complained that the FAO’s hunger estimates focused too narrowly on calorie intake, ignoring the bigger picture – protein, vitamin and mineral deficiencies in diets and the serious health problems they cause.
計算方法將影響結果
在任何時刻去計算全球饑餓人口數並非易事，更不用說預測未來該數字可能將如何改變。
Calculating the number of hungry people around the world at any given moment, let alone predicting how that number is likely to change in the future, is no easy task.
計算共有多少人口缺乏足夠糧食可用的模型，不如專家所預期的準確或具前瞻性。更甚者，變動的經濟條件影響到貧窮人口每天購買食物的能力；受極端氣候影響日劇的糧食收成，也會造成糧價的波動。
Models for working out how many people don’t have enough to eat are not as precise or forward-looking as experts would like. Moreover, shifting economic conditions alter the buying power of the poor day by day, and food harvests – increasingly affected by extreme weather – fluctuate, causing price volatility.
FAO在2008年面臨壓力，需明確指出在糧食價格飆漲和全球金融危機的衝擊下，增加了多少饑餓人口；因此FAO決定，要把美國農業署針對經濟衰退如何影響糧食生產、消耗及貿易的預測，跟FAO過去幾年的饑荒數據結合，再從中作出推斷。
When the FAO came under pressure to say how much hunger was increasing due to skyrocketing food prices and the global financial crisis in 2008, it decided to combine U.S. Department of Agriculture projections of how economic turmoil would hurt food production, consumption and trade with its own hunger estimates of previous years, and extrapolate（2） from there.
2009年公布的結果，出現全球饑餓人口的「歷史新高」，估計全球有10億2千萬人，亦即全球1／6人口處於饑餓狀態。
It estimated a “historic high” of 1.02 billion undernourished people, or around one-sixth of humanity, in 2009.
然而數據背後的假設也浮現問題。全球經濟情勢未如預期般出現災難，糧食的生產與消耗情況，也比原先預期來得好。
But problems emerged with the assumptions behind the number. Economic conditions did not turn out to be as disastrous as anticipated, and food production and consumption held up better than expected.
除此之外，在印度和中國這些發展中國家，糧食價格並未發生像先前所憂慮的驟升情形；這是因為這些國家使用出口禁令和補助來壓低糧食價格。
In addition, prices didn’t rise as much as feared in some developing countries, like India and China, because they used export bans and subsidies to keep them down.
最後，根據調查指出，許多人透過調整飲食習慣，食用較便宜的食物，或是減少教育等其他基本需求開支，藉此維持卡路里的攝取量。
Finally, many people were able to maintain the amount of calories they ate by switching to cheaper foods and cutting spending on other basic needs like education and healthcare, surveys suggest.
FAO的卡菲耶洛表示：「目前所有證據都指出，以卡路里的攝取量來看，目前的情形並沒有過去大家想的那麼危急。」
“All evidence now is pointing to the fact that the situation was not so desperate in terms of (people’s) calorie intake as, at that time, everybody thought it was,” FAO’s Cafiero said.
2010年FAO下修營養不良的預估人數為9億2,500萬人；2011年由於FAO的計算方式引發爭議，所以沒有提出營養不良的數據。
In 2010, FAO forecast a drop to 925 million undernourished people and in 2011 it didn’t produce a number at all given the dispute over its methods.
在地工作者可彌補資訊不足
目前的問題不在於測量評估饑餓人數是否必要，而是要如何收集、詮釋並分析所有數據，才能為糧食安全情形作出實際且準確的描繪。
The question is not whether metrics are necessary, but how to collect, interpret and share the data to present a realistic and accurate picture of the food security situation.
專家表示，改善計算饑餓人口的方式，會對各國政府和援助組織產生重大影響，讓這些單位能夠更有效率地處理饑餓危機。
Improving the way hunger is calculated could have far-reaching（3） consequences for the way governments and aid agencies respond more effectively to hunger crises, experts say.
舉例而言，援助組織表示，從他們與各地當地社群合作所取得的資料，能夠就各國、各地區，甚至全球的饑餓情形補充更完整的資訊。
Aid groups say information from their work with local communities can contribute to a fuller picture of hunger nationally, regionally and globally, for example.
「援助行動」在羅馬的糧食政策官員古耶拉表示：「我們有責任把現場的觀點帶進來……確保這不只是技術性操作，而是反應第一現場的真實情況。」
“We have a responsibility to bring the view from the field … to make sure it’s not just a technical exercise, but reflects the reality on the ground,” said Alberta Guerra, a Rome-based food policy officer for ActionAid.
2008年，肯亞奈洛比貧民窟居民面臨糧食價格暴漲，許多貧窮都會區家庭減少魚肉攝取、無藥可用並中斷家中孩童的學業。選後暴力更讓危機惡化，有些民眾偷竊食物，拾荒、非法私釀酒類或為了謀生而流落煙花。
In Nairobi’s slums, when the cost of food soared in 2008, many poor urban families cut out meat and fish, went without medicine and took their children out of school. With post-election violence making matters worse, some even stole food, scavenged in garbage dumps, brewed illegal alcohol or turned to prostitution（4） to survive.
然而許多駐紮肯亞首都的援助組織，因為較習慣處理鄉村饑餓危機，並未發展出一套體系來辨識原已貧困的貧民窟在何時會陷入緊急危境。
But the many aid agencies based in the Kenyan capital, much more used to working in rural hunger crises, didn’t have a system to pinpoint when conditions for already poor slum dwellers were becoming an emergency.
「全球關懷」的研究顧問雪菲爾德表示：「很難找到補助去處理都會區的饑荒問題；一部分原因在於沒有標準量表指出我們面臨危急狀況。」
“It was very difficult to get funding for urban response, partly because there were no metrics to say we are seeing a critical situation,” said Lilly Schofield, research adviser with Concern Worldwide.
因此該組織自行投入測試各種指標，意圖掌握肯亞貧民區各家戶糧食安全的變化，目前該地區的糧食價格仍相當昂貴。
The organisation has since begun testing indicators to capture changes in household food security in Kenya’s slums, where food has remained expensive.
「反饑餓行動」東非地區營養顧問內亞莎尼表示，比起年度飢餓問題營養調查，經常性的實地查看有效許多。
Nyauma Nyasani, East Africa nutrition adviser for Action Against Hunger, says frequent, on-the-ground（5） checks are far more effective at anticipating hunger problems than annual nutrition surveys.
過去1年來，該組織在肯亞乾燥的東北部地區進行一套糧食安全監管系統，其根據便是每3個月進行1次的家戶問卷調查。而在烏干達，在實施類似計畫2年之後，已發展出一套全國指標，與烏干達衛生部共同監管當地糧食安全。
For the past year, the aid group has been piloting a food security surveillance system in Kenya’s arid northeast, based on household questionnaires conducted every three months. And in Uganda, after a similar two-year project, it is developing national guidelines to monitor food security with the health ministry.
（路透Reuters）
關鍵字詞
1. indicator (n.) 指標
2. extrapolate (v.) 推斷
3. far-reaching (a.) 深遠的
4. prostitution (n.) 賣淫
5. on-the-ground (a.) 實地的、在地的
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